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Primera A · Colombia
Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe prediction and preview
6 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Independiente Medellin host Santa Fe in the Primera A (Colombia) on 6 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.25, which the bookmaker market rated at about 75% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Independiente Medellin 0–1 Santa Fe.
Going into the match, Independiente Medellin had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 14. Santa Fe had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Independiente Medellin's last 10 and 6 of Santa Fe's last 10; 8 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Independiente Medellin averaged 1.53 goals scored and 1.07 conceded across 15 matches; away from home Santa Fe averaged 1.27 scored and 1.07 conceded across 15.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.16 goals from Independiente Medellin and 1.31 from Santa Fe. From that it rates a home win at 32%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 39%, against 51%, 28% and 22% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 72%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Independiente Medellin (green) and Santa Fe (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente Medellin | DLWDL | 1.90 | 1.40 | 70% | 80% |
| Santa Fe | WDLWL | 1.40 | 1.10 | 60% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 78% | 1.20 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.73 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Independiente Medellin Win | 51% | 1.85 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.