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Liga Pro · Ecuador
Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica prediction and preview
23 Oct 2026, 20:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Independiente del Valle host Universidad Catolica in the Liga Pro (Ecuador) on 23 Oct 2026, 20:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Independiente del Valle had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 13. Universidad Catolica had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Independiente del Valle's last 10 and 7 of Universidad Catolica's last 10; 6 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Independiente del Valle averaged 2.28 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 18 matches; away from home Universidad Catolica averaged 1.29 scored and 1.00 conceded across 17.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.51 goals from Independiente del Valle and 1.08 from Universidad Catolica. From that it rates a home win at 68%, a draw at 19% and an away win at 14%, against 56%, 25% and 19% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 52%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Independiente del Valle (green) and Universidad Catolica (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente del Valle | LWWDW | 1.70 | 1.30 | 70% | 60% |
| Universidad Catolica | DLLWW | 1.50 | 1.00 | 70% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 29 Aug 2026 · Independiente del Valle 2–2 Universidad Catolica
- 14 May 2026 · Universidad Catolica 0–3 Independiente del Valle
- 2 May 2026 · Universidad Catolica 2–3 Independiente del Valle
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 12 | 76% | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Independiente del Valle Win | 56% | 1.65 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.