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Liga Pro · Ecuador
Independiente del Valle vs Aucas prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Independiente del Valle host Aucas in the Liga Pro (Ecuador) on 10 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Independiente del Valle Win — Independiente del Valle to win. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Independiente del Valle 2–1 Aucas.
Going into the match, Independiente del Valle had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 13. Aucas had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 7 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Independiente del Valle's last 10 and 4 of Aucas's last 10; 6 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Independiente del Valle averaged 2.29 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 17 matches; away from home Aucas averaged 0.93 scored and 0.73 conceded across 15.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.28 goals from Independiente del Valle and 0.79 from Aucas. From that it rates a home win at 70%, a draw at 19% and an away win at 11%, against 61%, 23% and 16% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 70%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Independiente del Valle (green) and Aucas (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente del Valle | WDWLW | 1.90 | 1.30 | 70% | 60% |
| Aucas | LDDDW | 0.90 | 0.70 | 40% | 20% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 17 Jul 2026 · Aucas 0–3 Independiente del Valle
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 77% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 67% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Independiente del Valle Win | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.