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Premyer Liqa · Azerbaijan
Imisli FK vs Qarabag prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Imisli FK host Qarabag in the Premyer Liqa (Azerbaijan) on 11 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Imisli FK 0–2 Qarabag.
Going into the match, Imisli FK had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 15. Qarabag had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 7 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Imisli FK's last 10 and 4 of Qarabag's last 10; 5 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Imisli FK averaged 0.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Qarabag averaged 1.57 scored and 0.86 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.70 goals from Imisli FK and 1.83 from Qarabag. From that it rates a home win at 13%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 63%, against 7%, 15% and 78% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 75%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Imisli FK (green) and Qarabag (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 16 May 2026 · Qarabag 3–0 Imisli FK
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 62% | 1.53 |
| BTTS No | 61% | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| Qarabag 1st Half Win | 59% | 1.53 |
| Qarabag HT & FT | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.