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2. SNL · Slovenia
Ilirija vs Krka prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Ilirija host Krka in the 2. SNL (Slovenia) on 10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.90, which the bookmaker market rated at about 50% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Ilirija 2–1 Krka.
Going into the match, Ilirija had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 14. Krka had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Ilirija's last 10 and 4 of Krka's last 10; 5 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Ilirija averaged 1.22 goals scored and 1.11 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Krka averaged 1.58 scored and 2.00 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.77 goals from Ilirija and 1.07 from Krka. From that it rates a home win at 53%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 22%, against 35%, 27% and 38% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 46%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Ilirija (green) and Krka (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 24 Apr 2026 · Krka 1–4 Ilirija
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.90 |
| Krka Win | 38% | 2.35 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.30 |
| 1-1 | 13% | 7.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.