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NPFL · Nigeria
Ikorodu City vs Kwara United prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Ikorodu City host Kwara United in the NPFL (Nigeria) on 10 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Ikorodu City Win — Ikorodu City to win. It was published at odds of 1.55, which the bookmaker market rated at about 60% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Ikorodu City 2–0 Kwara United.
Going into the match, Ikorodu City had won 2, drawn 5 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 11. Kwara United had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Ikorodu City's last 10 and 3 of Kwara United's last 10; 4 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Ikorodu City averaged 1.89 goals scored and 0.78 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Kwara United averaged 0.33 scored and 1.50 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.84 goals from Ikorodu City and 0.64 from Kwara United. From that it rates a home win at 65%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 11%, against 58%, 27% and 15% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 65%.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ikorodu City | LDWLD | 1.10 | 1.10 | 50% | 40% |
| Kwara United | WLWLW | 1.10 | 1.20 | 30% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.26 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 63% | 1.45 |
| Ikorodu City Win | 60% | 1.55 |
| BTTS No | 60% | 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 40% | 2.35 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.