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Superettan · Sweden
IFK Varnamo vs Falkenbergs FF prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
IFK Varnamo host Falkenbergs FF in the Superettan (Sweden) on 11 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: IFK Varnamo 1–2 Falkenbergs FF.
Going into the match, IFK Varnamo had won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 12. Falkenbergs FF had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 9 of IFK Varnamo's last 10 and 7 of Falkenbergs FF's last 10; 6 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home IFK Varnamo averaged 1.08 goals scored and 1.38 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Falkenbergs FF averaged 2.08 scored and 1.62 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.34 goals from IFK Varnamo and 2.17 from Falkenbergs FF. From that it rates a home win at 22%, a draw at 22% and an away win at 55%, against 38%, 27% and 35% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 54%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between IFK Varnamo (green) and Falkenbergs FF (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IFK Varnamo | WLWDW | 1.90 | 1.20 | 90% | 60% |
| Falkenbergs FF | DWWLW | 1.50 | 1.00 | 70% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 23 May 2026 · Falkenbergs FF 3–1 IFK Varnamo
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.