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Ettan - Norra · Sweden
IF Karlstad vs Arlanda prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
IF Karlstad host Arlanda in the Ettan - Norra (Sweden) on 10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: IF Karlstad 3–0 Arlanda.
Going into the match, IF Karlstad had won 0, drawn 5 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 16. Arlanda had won 6, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 23 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of IF Karlstad's last 10 and 7 of Arlanda's last 10; 5 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home IF Karlstad averaged 1.38 goals scored and 0.92 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Arlanda averaged 2.00 scored and 1.31 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.43 goals from IF Karlstad and 1.30 from Arlanda. From that it rates a home win at 39%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 33%, against 52%, 25% and 23% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 71%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between IF Karlstad (green) and Arlanda (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IF Karlstad | DDDDL | 0.90 | 1.60 | 70% | 50% |
| Arlanda | WWWWL | 2.30 | 1.50 | 70% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 27 Jun 2026 · Arlanda 1–0 IF Karlstad
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 1X | 77% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.