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Allsvenskan · Sweden
IF Elfsborg vs Malmo FF prediction and preview
23 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
IF Elfsborg host Malmo FF in the Allsvenskan (Sweden) on 23 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, IF Elfsborg had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 20 and conceding 7. Malmo FF had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 8 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of IF Elfsborg's last 10 and 2 of Malmo FF's last 10; 6 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home IF Elfsborg averaged 1.58 goals scored and 0.83 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Malmo FF averaged 1.55 scored and 1.18 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.43 goals from IF Elfsborg and 1.03 from Malmo FF. From that it rates a home win at 45%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 26%, against 46%, 25% and 29% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 77%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between IF Elfsborg (green) and Malmo FF (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IF Elfsborg | DWLWW | 2.00 | 0.70 | 40% | 60% |
| Malmo FF | LWWLW | 1.50 | 0.80 | 20% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 26 Jul 2026 · Malmo FF 1–2 IF Elfsborg
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 57% | 1.67 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.75 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Allsvenskan matches that day
- Vasteras SK FK vs Halmstad · 23 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC · Allsvenskan
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44