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Iceland vs Bulgaria prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Iceland host Bulgaria in the UEFA Nations League (International) on 3 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.25, which the bookmaker market rated at about 75% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Iceland 3–0 Bulgaria.
Going into the match, Iceland had won 1, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 4 matches, scoring 4 and conceding 5. Bulgaria had won 0, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 4, with 3 scored and 5 conceded.
Both teams scored in 1 of Iceland's last 4 and 2 of Bulgaria's last 4; 2 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Iceland averaged 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 1 matches; away from home Bulgaria averaged 2.00 scored and 2.00 conceded across 1.
The 1X2 prices imply about 66% for Iceland, 21% for the draw and 13% for Bulgaria once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Iceland (green) and Bulgaria (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 4 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Iceland Win | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS No | 54% | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 47% | 2.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.