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Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
Ibiza vs Real Madrid II prediction and preview
9 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Ibiza host Real Madrid II in the Primera División RFEF - Group 2 (Spain) on 9 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Ibiza 1–1 Real Madrid II.
Going into the match, Ibiza had won 6, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 12. Real Madrid II had won 2, drawn 5 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Ibiza's last 10 and 5 of Real Madrid II's last 10; 6 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Ibiza averaged 2.11 goals scored and 0.67 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Real Madrid II averaged 1.50 scored and 1.42 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.17 goals from Ibiza and 0.92 from Real Madrid II. From that it rates a home win at 65%, a draw at 21% and an away win at 14%, against 42%, 28% and 29% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 63%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Ibiza (green) and Real Madrid II (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ibiza | WLLWW | 1.90 | 1.20 | 50% | 60% |
| Real Madrid II | WLDLW | 1.10 | 1.10 | 50% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| Double Chance 1X | 71% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 49% | 1.95 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.