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NWSL Women · USA
Houston Dash W vs Washington Spirit W prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Houston Dash W host Washington Spirit W in the NWSL Women (USA) on 4 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.25, which the bookmaker market rated at about 75% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Houston Dash W 2–3 Washington Spirit W.
Going into the match, Houston Dash W had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 12. Washington Spirit W had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Houston Dash W's last 10 and 3 of Washington Spirit W's last 10; 4 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Houston Dash W averaged 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Washington Spirit W averaged 1.82 scored and 1.18 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.97 goals from Houston Dash W and 1.40 from Washington Spirit W. From that it rates a home win at 25%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 46%, against 25%, 24% and 52% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 70%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Houston Dash W (green) and Washington Spirit W (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Dash W | DWLLL | 1.30 | 1.20 | 50% | 40% |
| Washington Spirit W | LWLWW | 1.10 | 1.20 | 30% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 4 Jul 2026 · Washington Spirit W 2–1 Houston Dash W
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance X2 | 75% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.75 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Washington Spirit W Win | 52% | 1.73 |
| BTTS Yes | 50% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.