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3. Division · Denmark
Holbæk B&I vs ASA Aarhus prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Holbæk B&I host ASA Aarhus in the 3. Division (Denmark) on 3 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Holbæk B&I 2–1 ASA Aarhus.
Going into the match, Holbæk B&I had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 25 and conceding 19. ASA Aarhus had won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 9 of Holbæk B&I's last 10 and 4 of ASA Aarhus's last 10; 10 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Holbæk B&I averaged 2.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded across 10 matches; away from home ASA Aarhus averaged 0.60 scored and 1.80 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.42 goals from Holbæk B&I and 0.87 from ASA Aarhus. From that it rates a home win at 71%, a draw at 18% and an away win at 11%, against 59%, 21% and 20% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 64%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Holbæk B&I (green) and ASA Aarhus (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holbæk B&I | LWLWW | 2.50 | 1.90 | 90% | 100% |
| ASA Aarhus | WLWLW | 1.20 | 1.50 | 40% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 74% | 1.24 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 1.52 |
| Holbæk B&I Win | 59% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 54% | 1.74 |
| Holbæk B&I HT & FT | 41% | 2.25 |
| 2-1 | 10% | 9.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.