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HNL · Croatia
HNK Hajduk Split vs Dinamo Zagreb prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
HNK Hajduk Split host Dinamo Zagreb in the HNL (Croatia) on 10 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: HNK Hajduk Split 2–1 Dinamo Zagreb.
Going into the match, HNK Hajduk Split had won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 23 and conceding 8. Dinamo Zagreb had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 22 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of HNK Hajduk Split's last 10 and 6 of Dinamo Zagreb's last 10; 7 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home HNK Hajduk Split averaged 2.42 goals scored and 0.75 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Dinamo Zagreb averaged 3.07 scored and 1.13 conceded across 15.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.68 goals from HNK Hajduk Split and 1.21 from Dinamo Zagreb. From that it rates a home win at 47%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 26%, against 31%, 26% and 43% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 67%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between HNK Hajduk Split (green) and Dinamo Zagreb (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HNK Hajduk Split | LWWWW | 2.30 | 0.80 | 30% | 70% |
| Dinamo Zagreb | WWDLW | 2.20 | 1.40 | 60% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 9 May 2026 · Dinamo Zagreb 2–0 HNK Hajduk Split
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 64% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.67 |
| Under 8.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.