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Veikkausliiga · Finland
HJK Helsinki vs VPS prediction and preview
8 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
HJK Helsinki host VPS in the Veikkausliiga (Finland) on 8 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: HJK Helsinki 6–0 VPS.
Going into the match, HJK Helsinki had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 10. VPS had won 3, drawn 0 and lost 7 of their last 10, with 8 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of HJK Helsinki's last 10 and 4 of VPS's last 10; 4 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home HJK Helsinki averaged 2.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded across 15 matches; away from home VPS averaged 2.21 scored and 0.93 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.28 goals from HJK Helsinki and 1.04 from VPS. From that it rates a home win at 64%, a draw at 21% and an away win at 15%, against 57%, 24% and 19% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 58%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between HJK Helsinki (green) and VPS (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HJK Helsinki | DDWLW | 1.20 | 1.00 | 50% | 40% |
| VPS | LLWLW | 0.80 | 1.40 | 40% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 18 Jul 2026 · HJK Helsinki 2–1 VPS
- 22 May 2026 · VPS 2–1 HJK Helsinki
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 78% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| HJK Helsinki Win | 59% | 1.60 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.70 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.