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National League - North · England
Hereford vs Hednesford Town prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Hereford host Hednesford Town in the National League - North (England) on 10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Hereford 0–1 Hednesford Town.
Going into the match, Hereford had won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 23 and conceding 6. Hednesford Town had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Hereford's last 10 and 8 of Hednesford Town's last 10; 6 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Hereford averaged 2.00 goals scored and 1.09 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Hednesford Town averaged 1.17 scored and 1.33 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.85 goals from Hereford and 0.82 from Hednesford Town. From that it rates a home win at 61%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 15%, against 45%, 26% and 30% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 48%.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hereford | DLWWW | 2.30 | 0.60 | 40% | 60% |
| Hednesford Town | WLLWL | 1.70 | 1.60 | 80% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| BTTS Yes | 64% | 1.44 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 62% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
| Hereford Win | 44% | 2.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.