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Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
Hércules vs Real Jaén prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Hércules host Real Jaén in the Primera División RFEF - Group 2 (Spain) on 3 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 69% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Hércules 0–0 Real Jaén.
Going into the match, Hércules had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 8. Real Jaén had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Hércules's last 10 and 5 of Real Jaén's last 10; 3 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Hércules averaged 0.89 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Real Jaén averaged 1.29 scored and 0.71 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.83 goals from Hércules and 0.83 from Real Jaén. From that it rates a home win at 32%, a draw at 37% and an away win at 31%, against 53%, 27% and 20% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 51%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Hércules (green) and Real Jaén (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| BTTS No | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Hércules Win | 53% | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 44% | 2.15 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.