Hercílio Luz vs Barra prediction and preview

17 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC

The PunterPick prediction

BTTS YesOdds 1.47Market probability 62%Final score 2–0

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Hercílio Luz host Barra in the Copa Santa Catarina (Brazil) on 17 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.47, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Final score: Hercílio Luz 2–0 Barra.

Going into the match, Hercílio Luz had won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 10. Barra had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 16 conceded.

Both teams scored in 5 of Hercílio Luz's last 10 and 6 of Barra's last 10; 5 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Hercílio Luz averaged 2.55 goals scored and 0.73 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Barra averaged 0.92 scored and 1.25 conceded across 12.

Our team-strength model expects about 2.22 goals from Hercílio Luz and 0.97 from Barra. From that it rates a home win at 65%, a draw at 21% and an away win at 14%, against 40%, 26% and 34% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 56%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Hercílio Luz (green) and Barra (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form69% – 31%

Attack52% – 48%

Defence55% – 45%

Head-to-head38% – 62%

Goals50% – 50%

Overall strength56% – 43%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
Hercílio Luz	LWLWW	1.80	1.00	50%	50%
Barra	DLDDD	1.40	1.60	60%	50%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
Double Chance 12	74%	1.22
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	74%	1.23
BTTS 1st Half - No	73%	1.25
BTTS Yes	62%	1.47
Over 2.5 Goals	59%	1.60
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	59%	1.55
Over 9.5 Corners	52%	1.82
Under 2.5 Goals	41%	2.30

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.