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Eerste Divisie · Netherlands
Heracles vs Waalwijk prediction and preview
9 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Heracles host Waalwijk in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) on 9 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Heracles 3–0 Waalwijk.
Going into the match, Heracles had won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 31 and conceding 17. Waalwijk had won 4, drawn 5 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 22 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Heracles's last 10 and 7 of Waalwijk's last 10; 8 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Heracles averaged 2.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Waalwijk averaged 0.88 scored and 1.38 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.26 goals from Heracles and 1.13 from Waalwijk. From that it rates a home win at 62%, a draw at 21% and an away win at 17%, against 61%, 22% and 17% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 66%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Heracles (green) and Waalwijk (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 80% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 73% | 1.28 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 62% | 1.50 |
| Heracles Win | 61% | 1.55 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.