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Eerste Divisie · Netherlands
Helmond Sport vs Heracles prediction and preview
2 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Helmond Sport host Heracles in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) on 2 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Heracles Win — Heracles to win. It was published at odds of 1.38, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Helmond Sport 2–2 Heracles.
Going into the match, Helmond Sport had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 16. Heracles had won 8, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 31 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Helmond Sport's last 10 and 6 of Heracles's last 10; 5 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Helmond Sport averaged 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Heracles averaged 2.17 scored and 1.67 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.14 goals from Helmond Sport and 2.48 from Heracles. From that it rates a home win at 15%, a draw at 19% and an away win at 66%, against 13%, 20% and 67% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 66%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Helmond Sport (green) and Heracles (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Helmond Sport | LLWWL | 1.40 | 1.60 | 70% | 50% |
| Heracles | WLWWW | 3.10 | 1.50 | 60% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| Heracles Win | 67% | 1.38 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.62 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
| Over 10.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.