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Eredivisie · Netherlands
Heerenveen vs Excelsior prediction and preview
16 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Heerenveen host Excelsior in the Eredivisie (Netherlands) on 16 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Heerenveen 4–0 Excelsior.
Going into the match, Heerenveen had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 17. Excelsior had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 26 scored and 18 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Heerenveen's last 10 and 8 of Excelsior's last 10; 6 and 10 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Heerenveen averaged 2.11 goals scored and 1.56 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Excelsior averaged 3.09 scored and 1.36 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.08 goals from Heerenveen and 1.77 from Excelsior. From that it rates a home win at 45%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 33%, against 58%, 23% and 19% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 74%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Heerenveen (green) and Excelsior (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heerenveen | LWDLD | 1.80 | 1.70 | 50% | 60% |
| Excelsior | LDLDW | 2.60 | 1.80 | 80% | 100% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 78% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 73% | 1.28 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 64% | 1.50 |
| Heerenveen Win | 57% | 1.62 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.