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Premier League · Wales
Haverfordwest County AFC vs Caernarfon Town prediction and preview
9 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Haverfordwest County AFC host Caernarfon Town in the Premier League (Wales) on 9 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Haverfordwest County AFC 1–2 Caernarfon Town.
Going into the match, Haverfordwest County AFC had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 14. Caernarfon Town had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 32 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Haverfordwest County AFC's last 10 and 5 of Caernarfon Town's last 10; 4 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Haverfordwest County AFC averaged 2.00 goals scored and 1.36 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Caernarfon Town averaged 2.38 scored and 1.63 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.08 goals from Haverfordwest County AFC and 1.99 from Caernarfon Town. From that it rates a home win at 19%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 57%, against 20%, 23% and 57% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 63%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Haverfordwest County AFC (green) and Caernarfon Town (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haverfordwest County AFC | LLLWW | 0.70 | 1.40 | 30% | 40% |
| Caernarfon Town | LDWDW | 3.20 | 1.10 | 50% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 59% | 1.56 |
| Caernarfon Town Win | 57% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.70 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.