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National League · England
Hartlepool vs Tamworth prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Hartlepool host Tamworth in the National League (England) on 3 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 61% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Hartlepool 0–1 Tamworth.
Going into the match, Hartlepool had won 1, drawn 0 and lost 9 of their last 10 matches, scoring 5 and conceding 17. Tamworth had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 26 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Hartlepool's last 10 and 9 of Tamworth's last 10; 4 and 9 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Hartlepool averaged 1.00 goals scored and 2.09 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Tamworth averaged 1.73 scored and 2.91 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.45 goals from Hartlepool and 1.73 from Tamworth. From that it rates a home win at 31%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 43%, against 42%, 25% and 33% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 64%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Hartlepool (green) and Tamworth (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hartlepool | LLLLL | 0.50 | 1.70 | 40% | 40% |
| Tamworth | WLWLL | 1.60 | 2.60 | 90% | 90% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.28 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.60 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| Hartlepool Win | 42% | 2.20 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.