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National League Cup · England
Hartlepool vs Newcastle United U21 prediction and preview
13 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Hartlepool host Newcastle United U21 in the National League Cup (England) on 13 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Hartlepool 1–2 Newcastle United U21.
Going into the match, Hartlepool had won 2, drawn 0 and lost 8 of their last 10 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 17. Newcastle United U21 had won 2, drawn 0 and lost 8 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 24 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Hartlepool's last 10 and 7 of Newcastle United U21's last 10; 4 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Hartlepool averaged 0.92 goals scored and 2.00 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Newcastle United U21 averaged 1.50 scored and 2.13 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.58 goals from Hartlepool and 1.51 from Newcastle United U21. From that it rates a home win at 39%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 36%, against 16%, 21% and 63% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 60%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Hartlepool (green) and Newcastle United U21 (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hartlepool | WLLLL | 0.80 | 1.70 | 40% | 40% |
| Newcastle United U21 | WLLLW | 1.40 | 2.40 | 70% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 74% | 1.24 |
| Newcastle United U21 Win | 68% | 1.44 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 57% | 1.59 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 54% | 1.75 |
| Newcastle United U21 HT & FT | 48% | 1.95 |
| 1-2 | 9% | 10.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.