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USL League One Cup · USA
Hartford Athletic vs Louisville City prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Hartford Athletic host Louisville City in the USL League One Cup (USA) on 4 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.61, which the bookmaker market rated at about 58% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Hartford Athletic 0–1 Louisville City.
Going into the match, Hartford Athletic had won 7, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches, scoring 22 and conceding 12. Louisville City had won 2, drawn 6 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 9 of Hartford Athletic's last 10 and 7 of Louisville City's last 10; 7 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Hartford Athletic averaged 1.43 goals scored and 1.07 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Louisville City averaged 1.75 scored and 1.69 conceded across 16.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.39 goals from Hartford Athletic and 1.38 from Louisville City. From that it rates a home win at 36%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 36%, against 35%, 27% and 38% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 58%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Hartford Athletic (green) and Louisville City (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hartford Athletic | DDWWW | 2.20 | 1.20 | 90% | 70% |
| Louisville City | DWLDD | 1.10 | 1.10 | 70% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 26 Sep 2026 · Hartford Athletic 2–2 Louisville City
- 5 Jul 2026 · Louisville City 1–0 Hartford Athletic
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.24 |
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 71% | 1.32 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.54 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.61 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 46% | 2.05 |
| Louisville City Win | 38% | 2.40 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.