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National League · England
Harrogate Town vs AFC Hornchurch prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Harrogate Town host AFC Hornchurch in the National League (England) on 3 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.20, which the bookmaker market rated at about 78% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Harrogate Town 3–0 AFC Hornchurch.
Going into the match, Harrogate Town had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 20 and conceding 15. AFC Hornchurch had won 5, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Harrogate Town's last 10 and 3 of AFC Hornchurch's last 10; 8 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Harrogate Town averaged 2.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded across 10 matches; away from home AFC Hornchurch averaged 1.56 scored and 2.11 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.68 goals from Harrogate Town and 1.13 from AFC Hornchurch. From that it rates a home win at 49%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 24%, against 59%, 23% and 18% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 78%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Harrogate Town (green) and AFC Hornchurch (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harrogate Town | WWLLW | 2.00 | 1.50 | 80% | 80% |
| AFC Hornchurch | WLWLL | 1.10 | 1.50 | 30% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 78% | 1.20 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| Harrogate Town Win | 59% | 1.55 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.65 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.