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First Amateur Division · Belgium
Harelbeke vs Thes Sport prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Harelbeke host Thes Sport in the First Amateur Division (Belgium) on 11 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.57, which the bookmaker market rated at about 59% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Harelbeke 1–0 Thes Sport.
Going into the match, Harelbeke had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 20. Thes Sport had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 19 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Harelbeke's last 10 and 8 of Thes Sport's last 10; 7 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Harelbeke averaged 1.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Thes Sport averaged 1.60 scored and 1.60 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.14 goals from Harelbeke and 1.55 from Thes Sport. From that it rates a home win at 27%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 46%, against 24%, 22% and 54% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 51%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Harelbeke (green) and Thes Sport (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harelbeke | LDLLL | 0.90 | 2.00 | 30% | 70% |
| Thes Sport | DWLDW | 1.90 | 1.70 | 80% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance X2 | 77% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 74% | 1.23 |
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 1.55 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.58 |
| Thes Sport Win | 54% | 1.67 |
| Thes Sport HT & FT | 36% | 2.60 |
| 1-2 | 10% | 9.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.