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National League - North · England
Harborough Town vs Southport prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Harborough Town host Southport in the National League - North (England) on 10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Harborough Town 1–0 Southport.
Going into the match, Harborough Town had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 13. Southport had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 19 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Harborough Town's last 10 and 6 of Southport's last 10; 5 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Harborough Town averaged 1.50 goals scored and 1.13 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Southport averaged 0.89 scored and 2.67 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.76 goals from Harborough Town and 0.76 from Southport. From that it rates a home win at 60%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 15%, against 58%, 22% and 20% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 75%.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harborough Town | WLWDL | 1.20 | 1.30 | 50% | 50% |
| Southport | DLLWL | 1.20 | 1.90 | 60% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Harborough Town Win | 58% | 1.55 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.