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Liga Alef · Israel
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm vs Hapoel Ironi Karmiel prediction and preview
1 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm host Hapoel Ironi Karmiel in the Liga Alef (Israel) on 1 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance X2 — Hapoel Ironi Karmiel to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 70% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 0–0 Hapoel Ironi Karmiel.
Going into the match, Hapoel Umm al-Fahm had won 1, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 3 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 6. Hapoel Ironi Karmiel had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 4, with 8 scored and 3 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Hapoel Umm al-Fahm's last 3 and 3 of Hapoel Ironi Karmiel's last 4; 3 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Hapoel Umm al-Fahm averaged 2.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded across 2 matches; away from home Hapoel Ironi Karmiel averaged 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded across 2.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.82 goals from Hapoel Umm al-Fahm and 1.29 from Hapoel Ironi Karmiel. From that it rates a home win at 22%, a draw at 31% and an away win at 46%, against 31%, 26% and 43% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 78%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Hapoel Umm al-Fahm (green) and Hapoel Ironi Karmiel (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hapoel Umm al-Fahm | DWD | 2.33 | 2.00 | 100% | 100% |
| Hapoel Ironi Karmiel | DDWW | 2.00 | 0.75 | 75% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 4 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.35 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 57% | 1.61 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 47% | 2.00 |
| Hapoel Ironi Karmiel Win | 43% | 2.10 |
| Hapoel Ironi Karmiel HT & FT | 29% | 3.25 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.