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State Cup · Israel
Hapoel Nazareth Illit vs Hapoel Bnei Musmus prediction and preview
12 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Hapoel Nazareth Illit host Hapoel Bnei Musmus in the State Cup (Israel) on 12 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 73% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Hapoel Nazareth Illit 4–0 Hapoel Bnei Musmus.
Going into the match, Hapoel Nazareth Illit had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 17. Hapoel Bnei Musmus had won 1, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 6, with 3 scored and 6 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Hapoel Nazareth Illit's last 10 and 2 of Hapoel Bnei Musmus's last 6; 6 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Hapoel Nazareth Illit averaged 1.17 goals scored and 1.17 conceded across 6 matches; away from home Hapoel Bnei Musmus averaged 0.33 scored and 1.33 conceded across 3.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.94 goals from Hapoel Nazareth Illit and 0.71 from Hapoel Bnei Musmus. From that it rates a home win at 65%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 12%, against 51%, 26% and 23% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 75%.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hapoel Nazareth Illit | WLWWD | 1.40 | 1.70 | 70% | 60% |
| Hapoel Bnei Musmus | DWDLL | 0.50 | 1.00 | 33% | 33% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Hapoel Nazareth Illit Win | 52% | 1.75 |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.90 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.