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Premier League · Malta
Gzira United vs Mosta prediction and preview
14 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Gzira United host Mosta in the Premier League (Malta) on 14 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance X2 — Mosta to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Gzira United 1–1 Mosta.
Going into the match, Gzira United had won 1, drawn 3 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 18. Mosta had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Gzira United's last 10 and 6 of Mosta's last 10; 5 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Gzira United averaged 0.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 5 matches; away from home Mosta averaged 1.14 scored and 1.00 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.96 goals from Gzira United and 1.41 from Mosta. From that it rates a home win at 24%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 46%, against 36%, 27% and 37% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 76%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Gzira United (green) and Mosta (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gzira United | DDLLL | 0.60 | 1.80 | 50% | 50% |
| Mosta | DLDWW | 1.20 | 1.30 | 60% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 24 Jul 2026 · Gzira United 1–1 Mosta
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 67% | 1.37 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.39 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 52% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 48% | 2.00 |
| Mosta Win | 37% | 2.40 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.30 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.