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K League 1 · South Korea
Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Gwangju FC host Ulsan Hyundai FC in the K League 1 (South Korea) on 11 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Gwangju FC 4–3 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Going into the match, Gwangju FC had won 1, drawn 5 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 16. Ulsan Hyundai FC had won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Gwangju FC's last 10 and 6 of Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 10; 5 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Gwangju FC averaged 0.67 goals scored and 1.93 conceded across 15 matches; away from home Ulsan Hyundai FC averaged 1.15 scored and 1.15 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.25 goals from Gwangju FC and 2.10 from Ulsan Hyundai FC. From that it rates a home win at 21%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 56%, against 21%, 23% and 56% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 57%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Gwangju FC (green) and Ulsan Hyundai FC (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gwangju FC | DDLDL | 1.10 | 1.60 | 60% | 50% |
| Ulsan Hyundai FC | LWWDW | 1.50 | 1.10 | 60% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 5 Jul 2026 · Gwangju FC 1–1 Ulsan Hyundai FC
- 19 Apr 2026 · Ulsan Hyundai FC 5–1 Gwangju FC
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 77% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 62% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.62 |
| Ulsan Hyundai FC Win | 56% | 1.62 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.