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Liga 3 · Portugal
Guimaraes B vs Pacos Ferreira prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Guimaraes B host Pacos Ferreira in the Liga 3 (Portugal) on 11 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Guimaraes B to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.25, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Guimaraes B 0–1 Pacos Ferreira.
Going into the match, Guimaraes B had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 15. Pacos Ferreira had won 1, drawn 5 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 8 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Guimaraes B's last 10 and 6 of Pacos Ferreira's last 10; 4 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Guimaraes B averaged 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded across 5 matches; away from home Pacos Ferreira averaged 0.80 scored and 1.40 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.03 goals from Guimaraes B and 0.87 from Pacos Ferreira. From that it rates a home win at 37%, a draw at 34% and an away win at 29%, against 45%, 28% and 27% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 72%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Guimaraes B (green) and Pacos Ferreira (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guimaraes B | LDDWL | 1.10 | 1.50 | 60% | 40% |
| Pacos Ferreira | DDDLL | 0.80 | 1.40 | 60% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 72% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 67% | 1.38 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 52% | 1.85 |
| Over 10.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 48% | 1.95 |
| Guimaraes B Win | 44% | 2.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.