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Serie C - Girone B · Italy
Guidonia Montecelio 1937 vs Pineto prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Guidonia Montecelio 1937 host Pineto in the Serie C - Girone B (Italy) on 4 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Guidonia Montecelio 1937 1–0 Pineto.
Going into the match, Guidonia Montecelio 1937 had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 13. Pineto had won 1, drawn 5 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Guidonia Montecelio 1937's last 10 and 7 of Pineto's last 10; 5 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Guidonia Montecelio 1937 averaged 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 5 matches; away from home Pineto averaged 0.80 scored and 1.40 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.52 goals from Guidonia Montecelio 1937 and 0.76 from Pineto. From that it rates a home win at 54%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 18%, against 45%, 29% and 26% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 68%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Guidonia Montecelio 1937 (green) and Pineto (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guidonia Montecelio 1937 | LDDDW | 1.40 | 1.30 | 70% | 50% |
| Pineto | LDDWL | 0.90 | 1.70 | 70% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 73% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| BTTS No | 54% | 1.73 |
| Under 8.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Guidonia Montecelio 1937 Win | 45% | 2.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.