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Serie C - Girone B · Italy
Gubbio vs Perugia prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Gubbio host Perugia in the Serie C - Girone B (Italy) on 3 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Gubbio 1–3 Perugia.
Going into the match, Gubbio had won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 14. Perugia had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 8 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Gubbio's last 10 and 4 of Perugia's last 10; 6 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Gubbio averaged 2.00 goals scored and 0.86 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Perugia averaged 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.60 goals from Gubbio and 1.38 from Perugia. From that it rates a home win at 42%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 32%, against 32%, 29% and 39% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 81%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Gubbio (green) and Perugia (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.73 |
| BTTS Yes | 50% | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 45% | 2.08 |
| Perugia Win | 39% | 2.30 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.