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Liga Pro · Ecuador
Guayaquil City FC vs Emelec prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 21:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Guayaquil City FC host Emelec in the Liga Pro (Ecuador) on 10 Oct 2026, 21:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 61% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Guayaquil City FC 3–2 Emelec.
Going into the match, Guayaquil City FC had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 14. Emelec had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 8 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Guayaquil City FC's last 10 and 5 of Emelec's last 10; 6 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Guayaquil City FC averaged 1.23 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Emelec averaged 0.57 scored and 1.29 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.40 goals from Guayaquil City FC and 1.16 from Emelec. From that it rates a home win at 41%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 30%, against 31%, 30% and 39% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 53%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Guayaquil City FC (green) and Emelec (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guayaquil City FC | DWLLW | 1.50 | 1.40 | 70% | 60% |
| Emelec | LLWDW | 0.80 | 1.20 | 50% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 10 Aug 2026 · Guayaquil City FC 0–0 Emelec
- 18 Apr 2026 · Emelec 1–3 Guayaquil City FC
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Double Chance X2 | 68% | 1.36 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 64% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| BTTS No | 54% | 1.67 |
| Under 8.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Emelec Win | 38% | 2.40 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.