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Liga Nacional · Guatemala
Guastatoya vs Aurora prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Guastatoya host Aurora in the Liga Nacional (Guatemala) on 4 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Guastatoya Win — Guastatoya to win. It was published at odds of 1.48, which the bookmaker market rated at about 61% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Guastatoya 2–1 Aurora.
Going into the match, Guastatoya had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 12. Aurora had won 4, drawn 0 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 18 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Guastatoya's last 10 and 8 of Aurora's last 10; 6 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Guastatoya averaged 2.13 goals scored and 0.63 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Aurora averaged 1.00 scored and 2.57 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.10 goals from Guastatoya and 0.99 from Aurora. From that it rates a home win at 62%, a draw at 22% and an away win at 16%, against 61%, 24% and 16% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 62%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Guastatoya (green) and Aurora (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guastatoya | WWWDW | 1.60 | 1.20 | 60% | 60% |
| Aurora | LWLLL | 1.60 | 1.80 | 80% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 26 Jul 2026 · Aurora 0–1 Guastatoya
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 77% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.37 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 67% | 1.39 |
| Guastatoya Win | 61% | 1.48 |
| BTTS No | 56% | 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 47% | 2.00 |
| Guastatoya HT & FT | 41% | 2.25 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.