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Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 · Spain
Guadalajara vs Gimnástica Segoviana prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Guadalajara host Gimnástica Segoviana in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 (Spain) on 3 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Guadalajara to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.25, which the bookmaker market rated at about 73% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Guadalajara 3–3 Gimnástica Segoviana.
Going into the match, Guadalajara had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 17. Gimnástica Segoviana had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Guadalajara's last 10 and 4 of Gimnástica Segoviana's last 10; 6 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Guadalajara averaged 1.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded across 5 matches; away from home Gimnástica Segoviana averaged 1.60 scored and 2.20 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.81 goals from Guadalajara and 1.39 from Gimnástica Segoviana. From that it rates a home win at 47%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 29%, against 45%, 28% and 27% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 71%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Guadalajara (green) and Gimnástica Segoviana (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guadalajara | LWLLD | 1.30 | 1.70 | 70% | 60% |
| Gimnástica Segoviana | WLLWL | 1.30 | 1.20 | 40% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 73% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS Yes | 50% | 1.84 |
| Guadalajara Win | 45% | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 44% | 2.15 |
| Guadalajara HT & FT | 29% | 3.25 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.