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Serie C - Girone B · Italy
Grosseto vs Sambenedettese prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Grosseto host Sambenedettese in the Serie C - Girone B (Italy) on 3 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.25, which the bookmaker market rated at about 75% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Grosseto 1–3 Sambenedettese.
Going into the match, Grosseto had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 12. Sambenedettese had won 1, drawn 4 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Grosseto's last 10 and 8 of Sambenedettese's last 10; 6 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Grosseto averaged 1.64 goals scored and 1.82 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Sambenedettese averaged 1.29 scored and 1.29 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.40 goals from Grosseto and 1.62 from Sambenedettese. From that it rates a home win at 54%, a draw at 21% and an away win at 25%, against 54%, 26% and 20% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 92%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Grosseto (green) and Sambenedettese (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grosseto | WWDDL | 1.90 | 1.20 | 60% | 60% |
| Sambenedettese | LDLLL | 1.20 | 1.60 | 80% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| Grosseto Win | 54% | 1.65 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 53% | 1.74 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.