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Virsliga · Latvia
Grobiņa vs Ogre United prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Grobiņa host Ogre United in the Virsliga (Latvia) on 17 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Grobiņa 3–2 Ogre United.
Going into the match, Grobiņa had won 1, drawn 4 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 21. Ogre United had won 1, drawn 2 and lost 7 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 22 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Grobiņa's last 10 and 7 of Ogre United's last 10; 6 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Grobiņa averaged 0.86 goals scored and 1.21 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Ogre United averaged 0.94 scored and 2.94 conceded across 16.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.94 goals from Grobiņa and 1.28 from Ogre United. From that it rates a home win at 52%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 24%, against 52%, 25% and 24% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 60%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Grobiņa (green) and Ogre United (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grobiņa | LDDLW | 0.90 | 2.10 | 60% | 60% |
| Ogre United | LWLDL | 1.10 | 2.20 | 70% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 27 Jul 2026 · Grobiņa 2–2 Ogre United
- 25 May 2026 · Ogre United 1–1 Grobiņa
- 13 Apr 2026 · Ogre United 1–1 Grobiņa
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 67% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.70 |
| Grobiņa Win | 52% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.