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League Two · England
Grimsby vs Shrewsbury prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Grimsby host Shrewsbury in the League Two (England) on 3 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.22, which the bookmaker market rated at about 77% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Grimsby 1–2 Shrewsbury.
Going into the match, Grimsby had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 13. Shrewsbury had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 7 scored and 18 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Grimsby's last 10 and 3 of Shrewsbury's last 10; 6 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Grimsby averaged 2.36 goals scored and 1.09 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Shrewsbury averaged 0.25 scored and 1.33 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.42 goals from Grimsby and 0.71 from Shrewsbury. From that it rates a home win at 53%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 17%, against 56%, 25% and 20% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 64%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Grimsby (green) and Shrewsbury (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grimsby | LLWWD | 1.40 | 1.30 | 60% | 60% |
| Shrewsbury | DLDWL | 0.70 | 1.80 | 30% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 76% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Grimsby Win | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.