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EFL Trophy · England
Grimsby vs Burton Albion prediction and preview
6 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Grimsby host Burton Albion in the EFL Trophy (England) on 6 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 61% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Grimsby 0–0 Burton Albion.
Going into the match, Grimsby had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 12. Burton Albion had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Grimsby's last 10 and 8 of Burton Albion's last 10; 6 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Grimsby averaged 2.25 goals scored and 1.17 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Burton Albion averaged 1.00 scored and 1.25 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.78 goals from Grimsby and 1.08 from Burton Albion. From that it rates a home win at 53%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 22%, against 41%, 25% and 35% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 56%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Grimsby (green) and Burton Albion (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grimsby | LLLWW | 1.40 | 1.20 | 60% | 60% |
| Burton Albion | LWDDL | 1.50 | 1.60 | 80% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| BTTS Yes | 61% | 1.53 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.