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Serie A · Brazil
Gremio vs Internacional prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 20:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Gremio host Internacional in the Serie A (Brazil) on 11 Oct 2026, 20:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 12 — either side to win, with no draw. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Gremio 1–1 Internacional.
Going into the match, Gremio had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 13. Internacional had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Gremio's last 10 and 6 of Internacional's last 10; 5 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Gremio averaged 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 18 matches; away from home Internacional averaged 1.08 scored and 1.83 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.55 goals from Gremio and 1.10 from Internacional. From that it rates a home win at 47%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 26%, against 33%, 28% and 39% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 72%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Gremio (green) and Internacional (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gremio | DDLLL | 1.00 | 1.30 | 50% | 50% |
| Internacional | WLWLL | 1.00 | 1.30 | 60% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 4 Sep 2026 · Gremio 3–1 Internacional
- 28 Aug 2026 · Internacional 0–0 Gremio
- 12 Apr 2026 · Internacional 0–0 Gremio
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 72% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 52% | 1.85 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 48% | 1.95 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.