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Greece vs Netherlands prediction and preview
1 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Greece host Netherlands in the UEFA Nations League (International) on 1 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.20, which the bookmaker market rated at about 78% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Greece 2–2 Netherlands.
Going into the match, Greece had won 2, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 4 matches, scoring 5 and conceding 4. Netherlands had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 8, with 16 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 2 of Greece's last 4 and 7 of Netherlands's last 8; 2 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Greece averaged 0.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 1 matches; away from home Netherlands averaged 2.50 scored and 1.00 conceded across 2.
The 1X2 prices imply about 28% for Greece, 26% for the draw and 46% for Netherlands once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Greece (green) and Netherlands (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greece | WWLD | 1.25 | 1.00 | 50% | 50% |
| Netherlands | WDDWW | 2.00 | 1.13 | 88% | 63% |
Averages over each side's last 8 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
| Netherlands Win | 46% | 2.05 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.