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Greece vs Germany prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Greece host Germany in the UEFA Nations League (International) on 4 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Greece 0–0 Germany.
Going into the match, Greece had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 6. Germany had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 9, with 20 scored and 8 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Greece's last 5 and 6 of Germany's last 9; 3 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Greece averaged 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded across 2 matches; away from home Germany averaged 1.33 scored and 1.33 conceded across 3.
The 1X2 prices imply about 23% for Greece, 25% for the draw and 52% for Germany once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Greece (green) and Germany (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 9 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 27 Sep 2026 · Germany 0–1 Greece
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance X2 | 76% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.65 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.