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Serie D - Girone H · Italy
Gravina vs Virtus Francavilla prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Gravina host Virtus Francavilla in the Serie D - Girone H (Italy) on 4 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.22, which the bookmaker market rated at about 76% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Gravina 4–2 Virtus Francavilla.
Going into the match, Gravina had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 9 matches, scoring 23 and conceding 7. Virtus Francavilla had won 5, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 9, with 13 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Gravina's last 9 and 6 of Virtus Francavilla's last 9; 6 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Gravina averaged 2.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Virtus Francavilla averaged 1.33 scored and 1.67 conceded across 3.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.95 goals from Gravina and 1.34 from Virtus Francavilla. From that it rates a home win at 51%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 25%, against 34%, 25% and 41% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 85%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Gravina (green) and Virtus Francavilla (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravina | LDDWW | 2.56 | 0.78 | 44% | 67% |
| Virtus Francavilla | WWWWW | 1.44 | 1.67 | 67% | 78% |
Averages over each side's last 9 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 70% | 1.31 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 66% | 1.43 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 57% | 1.71 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 46% | 2.06 |
| Virtus Francavilla Win | 41% | 2.32 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.