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Liga Profesional Argentina · Argentina
Gimnasia M. vs Newells Old Boys prediction and preview
12 Oct 2026, 21:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Gimnasia M. host Newells Old Boys in the Liga Profesional Argentina (Argentina) on 12 Oct 2026, 21:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.48, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Gimnasia M. 1–0 Newells Old Boys.
Going into the match, Gimnasia M. had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 12. Newells Old Boys had won 3, drawn 5 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 8 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Gimnasia M.'s last 10 and 5 of Newells Old Boys's last 10; 5 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Gimnasia M. averaged 1.38 goals scored and 0.50 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Newells Old Boys averaged 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.93 goals from Gimnasia M. and 0.95 from Newells Old Boys. From that it rates a home win at 32%, a draw at 35% and an away win at 33%, against 41%, 33% and 26% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 71%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Gimnasia M. (green) and Newells Old Boys (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gimnasia M. | LDLDW | 1.30 | 1.20 | 30% | 50% |
| Newells Old Boys | DWDDD | 1.00 | 0.80 | 50% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 1X | 72% | 1.28 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 63% | 1.48 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS No | 55% | 1.67 |
| Gimnasia M. Win | 41% | 2.30 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.