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Torneo Federal A · Argentina
Gimnasia Concepción vs 9 de Julio Rafaela prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Gimnasia Concepción host 9 de Julio Rafaela in the Torneo Federal A (Argentina) on 11 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Gimnasia Concepción 4–1 9 de Julio Rafaela.
Going into the match, Gimnasia Concepción had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 3. 9 de Julio Rafaela had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 0 of Gimnasia Concepción's last 10 and 6 of 9 de Julio Rafaela's last 10; 1 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Gimnasia Concepción averaged 1.27 goals scored and 0.36 conceded across 11 matches; away from home 9 de Julio Rafaela averaged 1.18 scored and 1.36 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.40 goals from Gimnasia Concepción and 0.49 from 9 de Julio Rafaela. From that it rates a home win at 59%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 12%, against 52%, 29% and 19% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 71%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Gimnasia Concepción (green) and 9 de Julio Rafaela (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gimnasia Concepción | LWLDW | 0.90 | 0.30 | 0% | 10% |
| 9 de Julio Rafaela | DLWWL | 1.10 | 1.00 | 60% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 5 Jul 2026 · Gimnasia Concepción 3–0 9 de Julio Rafaela
- 3 May 2026 · 9 de Julio Rafaela 4–1 Gimnasia Concepción
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 62% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| BTTS No | 59% | 1.57 |
| Gimnasia Concepción Win | 51% | 1.73 |
| Under 1.5 Goals | 38% | 2.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.