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League Two · England
Gillingham vs Newport County prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Gillingham host Newport County in the League Two (England) on 3 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Gillingham 0–0 Newport County.
Going into the match, Gillingham had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 16. Newport County had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Gillingham's last 10 and 6 of Newport County's last 10; 6 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Gillingham averaged 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Newport County averaged 1.57 scored and 1.14 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.46 goals from Gillingham and 1.19 from Newport County. From that it rates a home win at 42%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 30%, against 47%, 27% and 27% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 72%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Gillingham (green) and Newport County (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillingham | LLWWW | 1.20 | 1.60 | 40% | 60% |
| Newport County | WWDDL | 1.50 | 1.30 | 60% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 74% | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 49% | 1.95 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.