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League Cup · Egypt
Ghazl El Mehalla vs Abu Qair Semad prediction and preview
8 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Ghazl El Mehalla host Abu Qair Semad in the League Cup (Egypt) on 8 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Ghazl El Mehalla to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Ghazl El Mehalla 1–1 Abu Qair Semad.
Going into the match, Ghazl El Mehalla had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 15. Abu Qair Semad had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 8 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Ghazl El Mehalla's last 10 and 2 of Abu Qair Semad's last 10; 4 and 1 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Ghazl El Mehalla averaged 0.78 goals scored and 0.78 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Abu Qair Semad averaged 0.33 scored and 1.33 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.00 goals from Ghazl El Mehalla and 1.06 from Abu Qair Semad. From that it rates a home win at 32%, a draw at 33% and an away win at 35%, against 41%, 30% and 29% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 65%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Ghazl El Mehalla (green) and Abu Qair Semad (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ghazl El Mehalla | LLDLL | 0.80 | 1.50 | 30% | 40% |
| Abu Qair Semad | LLLLW | 0.80 | 1.00 | 20% | 10% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 72% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 64% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| BTTS No | 54% | 1.73 |
| Ghazl El Mehalla Win | 40% | 2.15 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 39% | 2.38 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.